Prediction Markets: Polymarket & Beyond

Prediction markets are the fastest-growing trading opportunity in 2024-2025. I made over $400K trading the 2024 US election on Polymarket, and I'm going to show you exactly how. We start with the fundamentals - how prediction markets work, the difference between binary and scalar markets, and why they're often more accurate than polls. You'll understand the mechanics of market making and arbitrage. Finding edge is everything. You'll learn to analyze political races, identify mispriced events, and understand when the market is wrong. I share my research process, data sources, and how I build conviction on trades. Position sizing in prediction markets is unique. You'll learn Kelly criterion, partial Kelly, and how to manage a portfolio of correlated bets. We cover liquidity considerations and when to scale in or out. Beyond Polymarket, we explore Kalshi (the regulated US prediction market), sports betting markets, and crypto prediction protocols. You'll understand the regulatory landscape and which markets offer the best opportunities.

Sarah Chen

Crypto & DeFi Specialist

4.89 (4800 students)